Yet SpaceX’s IPO has already become a lightning rod for debate. Some market onlookers argue its eye-popping valuation is untethered from its fundamentals. SpaceX posted $18.67 billion in 2025 revenue, up 33%, while swinging to a $4.94 billion net loss: about 94x trailing sales at the IPO price.
Still, analysts are split on whether SpaceX will ultimately skyrocket or falter on the platform. Here’s what some of them are saying.
Dan Ives, a managing director and senior equity research analyst at Wedbush Securities, is a longtime Tesla bull, and his enthusiasm has now spread to SpaceX’s IPO. In a note to investors on Wednesday, he described the public offering as “an important moment for the broader tech sector in our view as this AI Revolution and data takes this next step forward.”
Combining both of Musk’s public companies could be a “holy grail” move that would allow the world’s richest man to control more of the AI ecosystem, Ives said.
There are also worries among investors that the broader tech trade may lose some steam due to SpaceX’s giant IPO, Ives acknowledged. Yet, he wrote in his Wednesday note that “this will be a short-term bump in the road as the market adjusts to this new tech titan as a public company.”
On the other side of the spectrum from Ives is Morningstar’s Nicolas Owens, who claims the SpaceX IPO is significantly overvalued.
The influence of these long-shot projects, especially orbital data centers, weighs heavily on the stock’s potential value, Owens said.
Owens’ base case is a “minimum viable product” outcome with a 50% probability. In this scenario, orbital data centers are technically feasible but face scale limits, leaving SpaceX with roughly 4% of forecast global AI compute capacity, which will yield it about $47 billion in annual orbital‑AI revenue by 2035.
In the worst case, Owens sees a 43% chance that orbital data centers never leave the launch pad. In this “No-go” scenario, orbital data centers either don’t work at all or present no advantage over terrestrial options.
“We surmise that the company, having invested tens of billions to find this out, would cut bait on the project sometime around 2028, the way management walked away from plans to build multiple small-car factories at Tesla,” wrote Owens.
Investors, he wrote in the full report last week, may want to wait to buy given the high price but also SpaceX’s unusual lockup schedule. Unlike in other IPOs where company insiders and existing shareholders are usually allowed to sell their shares only after 180 days, SpaceX will allow some of these investors, excluding Musk, to sell a chunk of their shares as soon as weeks after the IPO date and then periodically until December.
