The May private sector jobs report cast a shadow on Wednesday’s market moves. Or better yet—the lack thereof.
The May report was far below analysts expectations which had forecasted around 110,000 jobs and April’s number which had been revised down to 60,000. The pace of hiring was the lowest level seen since March 2023, ADP reported.
That said, any impact the jobs report had on the stock market was muted. The S&P 500 finished rose slightly, closing up 0.01%. The Nasdaq Composite had a slightly better session, closing at a respectable 0.32%. Meanwhile the Dow Jones was the only of major indices to close negative on Wednesday. At market close finished 0.22% lower. Throughout the day there was some garden variety intraday choppiness, but nothing that would have alarmed investors that weren’t day traders.
Whether ADP’s May jobs numbers were an expected hiccup after weeks of turbulence or the start of a much broader, more sustained slide will be the key question going forward. A big part of that answer could come on Friday when the Bureau of Labor Statistics will release its monthly report of nonfarm payroll numbers.
“Today’s downside surprise could raise more eyebrows than usual,” wrote E*Trade managing director of trading and investing Chris Larkin in a note. “Some tariff-related slowdown in the labor market is expected, the question is how significant it will be, and how the markets will respond. This month could begin to provide some answers.”
Since the start of the year, the U.S. dollar has declined 9%. The outlook for the rest of the year didn’t see much of a change in trajectory. Across Wall Street, the number of investors taking up bear positions against the dollar have grown. They show no sign of slowing up based on the currency’s current path.
