The American worker is on a productivity tear and it may have more to do with a surge in working from home than the effects of AI, according to a Stanford economist.
Yet, while the hype around AI over the past several years makes it a logical candidate for the main driver behind the productivity boom, Nicholas Bloom, a Stanford economics professor who is known for explaining the Great Resignation of the early 2020s, says it’s more likely work-from-home policies since the pandemic are fueling the trend.
In an email to Fortune, Bloom also noted the data show “a clear post-2020 surge in productivity growth exactly when WFH [work from home] ramped up.”
Companies argue in-person work increases collaboration, and Bloom agrees. Yet, he said, bringing people back into the office five days a week is counterintuitive, and has more to do with either preparing for layoffs or the personal preference of a CEO, which Bloom said skews toward typically older and male leaders.
A hybrid approach of two days in office and three days remote may actually be the best option for increasing productivity, he said. As Bloom puts it, workers spend most of their time in the office on administrative tasks like managing their email and participating in zoom calls. With three remote days, workers can do the bulk of this work at home. This leaves two days when most employees are in the office that can be fully focused on in-person collaboration, mentorship, and company culture.
“Coming into the office does absolutely help with collaboration, mentoring and culture, but you don’t need to be in every day to achieve that,” he said.
Yet, once firms pick a work schedule, they should stick to it, he said. Going from three days in person to five days in person, for example, “generates huge anger, churn and disruption.”
Though the use of AI has exploded since ChatGPT was released in 2022, the rise in productivity over the past five years likely cannot be fully attributed to AI.
