On top of that, Trump must navigate the run-up to the midterms later this year. Fiscal stimulus from the One Big Beautiful Bill Act is likely to address ongoing affordability concerns. However, the White House will still be looking to sell positive economic news in the coming months.
Cantrill continued: “In 2026, there may be more constraints on Trump 2.0 by the Congress, both in terms of pushing back on him, as well as forcing him to act. Similarly, we may see more limits imposed on President Trump by the lower courts as well as in some cases, by the Supreme Court. Broadly, President Trump’s flagging approval rating could also mean that he will have less room to maneuver in the court of public opinion as well.”
A cycle of waning influence through a presidential term is nothing new, Cantrill acknowledges.
What may be different when it comes to President Trump is that this won’t curtail his plans or rhetoric, which has surprised markets and investors alike over the past year. Cantrill noted that Trump “may be more inclined to push farther, but the political runway to do so will be shorter. Congress will be less willing to accommodate him as they pivot toward their own survival, and the courts are likely to catch up with the unprecedented pace of Trump 2.0.
“This may have implications for both the dollar and Treasuries as markets may be reminded that under the U.S. Constitution, no president—even one as historic as President Trump—has unchecked power.”
