For millions of future retirees, the numbers are stark. CRFB’s estimate reveals that a typical dual-earning couple retiring at the start of 2033 would see their annual Social Security benefit drop by approximately $18,100. The percentage cut is projected to be 24% for that year, instantly slashing retirement incomes for over 62 million Americans who depend on the program.
The pain would be widespread but would vary by income and household type. For example, single-earner couples could see a $13,600 cut, while low-income, dual-earner couples face an $11,000 shortfall. And high-income couples might lose up to $24,000 a year.
While the dollar cut is smaller for lower-income households, the relative burden is even more severe, devouring a larger share of retirement income and past earnings. Also, these cuts are in nominal dollars; adjusted to 2025 dollars, the actual cut would be about 15% less.
Over time, the gap is expected to worsen: By the end of the century, CRFB adds, Social Security could face required benefit cuts of over 30%, unless lawmakers shore up the program’s finances. Despite these dire projections, many policymakers have pledged not to alter Social Security, promising to keep benefits untouched. But if nothing changes, the law automatically enforces cuts when the trust fund runs dry.
The CRFB report urges policymakers to be candid about the situation and to work toward bipartisan solutions that secure Social Security’s future. Ideas could include new revenue sources, adjusting benefits, or a combination—anything to avoid the “steep and sudden” cut that looms for tens of millions. Without meaningful congressional action before 2032, the Social Security safety net will be abruptly—and dramatically—shrunk, so Americans approaching retirement will at least want to pay close attention to congressional action on the looming cliff.
For this story, Fortune used generative AI to help with an initial draft. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing.
