After a challenging 2022, Wall Street witnessed a remarkable rebound in 2023, with the S&P 500 and Nasdaq 100 surging by over 20% and 50%, respectively. As the economy showed resilience, inflation moderated, and interest rates reached a potential peak, investors overcame recession fears, prompting a resurgence in stock market activity. The burning question now is whether this robust market performance will extend into 2024, or if an economic slowdown and subsequent crash are on the horizon.
Business Insider has compiled comprehensive insights into Wall Street’s forecasts for the 2024 stock market, covering a spectrum of perspectives.
- BCA Research: Bearish Outlook (S&P 500 Price Target: 3,300) BCA Research anticipates a potential recession in the US and Euro area, posing a risk of the S&P 500 experiencing its most significant crash since 2008. The outlook hinges on the trajectory of monetary policy and the likelihood of swift interest rate cuts by the Federal Reserve.
- JPMorgan: Cautiously Bearish (S&P 500 Price Target: 4,200) JPMorgan expresses concerns about high equity valuations, elevated interest rates, weakening consumer trends, geopolitical risks, and the looming specter of a recession. The bank foresees a challenging macro backdrop for stocks in 2024.
- Morgan Stanley: Neutral with Insights (S&P 500 Price Target: 4,500) Morgan Stanley foresees a flat stock market in 2024, emphasizing the continuation of narrow leadership in mega-cap tech stocks. The firm suggests focusing on defensive growth stocks and late-cycle cyclical stocks to navigate the challenging macro environment.
- Goldman Sachs: Neutral Stance (S&P 500 Price Target: 4,700) Goldman Sachs expects a marginal increase in the S&P 500 in 2024, aligning with earnings growth. The outlook highlights the challenges posed by high-for-longer interest rates and emphasizes the importance of corporate earnings in supporting stock prices.
- Bank of America: Bullish on Progress (S&P 500 Price Target: 5,000) Bank of America adopts a bullish stance, citing the Federal Reserve’s successful tightening of monetary policy and companies’ adaptation to higher rates and inflation. The focus on the progress made by the Fed contributes to a positive outlook for 2024.
- RBC: Bullish with Caution (S&P 500 Price Target: 5,000) RBC acknowledges the potential pull-forward of gains due to a strong November rally but remains optimistic about further upside in 2024. The bank attributes expected gains to a decline in the inflation rate and considers historical data on presidential election years.
- Federated Hermes: Bullish on Trends (S&P 500 Price Target: 5,000) Federated Hermes anticipates the continuation of strong underlying trends, attributing the bullish outlook to the Federal Reserve’s halt in interest rate hikes. The belief in a gradual inflation slowdown contributes to the positive trajectory.
- Deutsche Bank: Bullish on Soft Landing (S&P 500 Price Target: 5,100) Deutsche Bank envisions a soft landing for the US economy, expecting solid stock market gains as inflation cools. The bank downplays the impact of a potential recession, noting that investors are already anticipating it.
- BMO: Bullish on Tailwinds (S&P 500 Price Target: 5,100) BMO predicts a year of solid gains in 2024, driven by falling inflation, interest rates, a robust job market, and rising corporate earnings. The outlook is optimistic, even in the face of a potential economic recession.
