UnitedHealth is reeling from a roughly 20% stock rout after warning investors it expects its first annual revenue decline in more than three decades, a stunning reversal for a company long seen as one of Wall Street’s most reliable growth engines. The selloff wiped tens of billions of dollars off the health-care giant’s market value and sent shockwaves through the broader managed-care sector as investors reassessed the risks in the once‑high‑flying Medicare Advantage business.
United executives also pointed to full‑year 2025 revenue of about $447.6 billion, up 12% year-over-year, and guided investors to at least $17.75 in adjusted earnings per share for 2026, implying high‑single‑digit profit growth even as the top line dips. The company highlighted efforts to refocus on core markets, tighten pricing to reflect higher medical trends, and streamline Optum’s operations under new leadership, steps it says will support margin expansion over time.
Still, the narrative dominating trading desks was less about long‑term strategy and more about broken expectations. Investors had grown accustomed to UnitedHealth as a steady compounder, not a company forecasting falling revenue and absorbing large restructuring charges while facing political and regulatory heat. With Medicare Advantage rates under pressure, a new coding model expected to shave billions from revenue, and up to 2.8 million members projected to leave its plans, the outlook raised fresh doubts about how quickly the insurer can restore its growth premium.
UnitedHealthcare CEO Tim Noel disclosed that the membership decline will include 1.3 million to 1.4 million members leaving over the full year due to UHC Medicare Advantage contraction. “These are greater losses than originally anticipated,” Noel said, “as competitive market dynamics drove higher than expected planned shopping during the intensely competitive annual enrollment period.”
For now, UnitedHealth is trying to convince Wall Street that this is a reset, not a reversal of fortune. Management insists that divestitures, portfolio pruning, and cost cuts will leave the company leaner and more resilient, even if 2026 marks an unusual step backward in sales. But investors are clearly in repricing mode as the full impact of changes to health insurance becomes visible.
