Dining and lodging would be hit hardest, forfeiting over 50,000 and just under 45,000 jobs, respectively. Entertainment is next on the list with an estimated 25,000 jobs lost, followed by retail industries, including gas stations, at 19,500.
Lost labor income comes out to just over $13 billion, including wages, salaries, and earnings by proprietors.
“There’s not a lot of automation in service sectors,” Thorvaldson told Fortune, “and so the impact on employment is kind of outsized for the reduction in spending.”
It’s important to note the March dip in air traffic has been largely attributed to Easter falling much later than usual this year. Foreign arrivals spiked in April, bringing the decline over the two months to just 1.6%, according to Oxford Economics.
Still, the 10% figure appears to be a scenario worth modeling, with Oxford expecting international arrivals to fall 8.7% this year, down slightly from its March projection of a 9.4% drop.
That represents a direct hit to the service sector, as well as a blow to supply chains, and, of course, Americans’ pocketbooks. For every dollar no longer spent by foreign tourists in the U.S., an additional $1.19 is lost throughout the economy, according to Thorvaldson’s estimates.
“It really showcases how interconnected everything is in this economy,” she said.
Thorvaldson’s analysis covered the aggregate impact of a tourism shock on the U.S., rather than zeroing in on local and regional economies. However, popular tourist destinations like Florida, New York, and Las Vegas could be especially vulnerable.
Data from April suggests that’s not just bluster, with the number of Canadian visitors returning from trips to the U.S. declining 35% by land and 20% by air, according to Oxford. The firm expects the U.S. to see 20% fewer tourists from Canada overall this year, followed by a projected 6% decline in visitors from Western Europe.
Political hostility and tighter border controls aside, tourists may also find they can get a better bang for their buck outside of the world’s largest economy.
“While costs are only one factor considered by travelers, this poses a headwind to inbound travel and a tailwind for outbound travel,” Ryan wrote.
