The National Travel and Tourism Office released preliminary figures Thursday showing the number of airline and ship passengers who entered the country last month using business visas.
The new government data didn’t include people coming from Canada for business or who traveled by land from Mexico. Mexican arrivals by air for those holding business visas were down 11.8%, the government said.
But that flipped in April, as the late Easter holiday likely encouraged more leisure travel. Travel to the U.S. by international travelers holding tourist visas was up 13.8% in April.
It’s unclear if that trend will hold. Cirium, an aviation analytics company, said an analysis of online travel agency data indicated that advance bookings from Europe to 14 U.S. cities in June, July and August were down 12% from those same months last year.
Leslie Andrews, the global travel leader for real estate company JLL and a board member at the Global Business Travel Association Foundation, said she thinks corporate travel to the U.S. will slow in the second and third quarters of the year as the full impact of economic and geopolitical volatility sets in.
“What I am hearing is, ‘Things were good in the first quarter,’ but in the second quarter it’s a matter of, ‘Must you take that trip?’” Andrews said. “They’re pulling in the reins a bit to make sure only purposeful travel is happening as things grow and evolve.”
Kevin Haggarty usually travels to the United States from Canada several times a year to attend trade shows in Atlanta or Las Vegas or to visit suppliers in Los Angeles. But his concerns about crossing the border will keep him from making those trips this year.
Global Business Travel Association CEO Suzanne Neufang said a poll of more than 900 of the association’s members last month showed nearly one-third expected a decline in global travel volumes this year.
Canadian members were the most pessimistic, with 71% saying they expect a decrease in travel this year, Neufang said.
“The uncertainty is unnerving for a business travel sector that likes to be safe and likes to be efficient,” she said.
A drop-off in business trips would represent a setback for the U.S. travel industry and cities that host international conventions and trade shows. The $1.6 trillion global business travel sector was finally returning to normal after the COVID-19 pandemic. U.S. business travel spending reached pre-COVID levels in 2023, Neufang said, while the rest of the world achieved that last year.
Brett Sterenson, the president of Hotel Lobbyists, a Washington firm that helps groups book hotels for meetings and conferences, said he was losing international business as some countries warn travelers not to visit the U.S.
U.S. government cuts are also hurting business, Sterenson said. He works with several groups that offer international exchange programs through the State Department. The programs welcome travelers from Africa, Latin America, Southeast Asia and elsewhere and share best practices on things like energy policy and environmental stewardship, he said. But with funding cuts, that part of his business is down 75%.
“These exchanges were monumentally useful in spreading goodwill, but also in educating developing nations on good governance,” Sterenson said.
Haggarty, in Canada, said he canceled a trip to a trade show in Gatlinburg, Tennessee, and said several retailers he works with also pulled out. He’s now looking to England, France, Spain and other markets for goods to sell.
“It’s unfortunate. It’s much easier to bring products to Canada from the U.S., but we’re in a corner,” he said. “I want people to know just how much damage this administration is doing to their relationships globally.”
