Retaliatory tariffs from China as a result of the trade war has also hobbled soybean farmers, who previously relied on China for more than 20% of its soybean exports. Chinese tariffs on the crop reached 34%, making U.S.-exported soybeans more expensive to Chinese importers than beans from Brazil. This effectively prices the U.S. out of the Chinese soybean market ahead of the autumn harvest season, according to the American Soybean Association.
The U.S. Department of Agriculture has laid the blame of today’s agriculture struggles on former President Joe Biden, saying his administration inherited a good farm economy, but “erased” Trump’s efforts to keep interest rates low and open new markets, resulting in a $50 billion agricultural trade deficit.
The USDA did not provide Fortune any additional information about what a potential farmer bailout program would look like.
“We are constantly assessing the farm economy and exploring the need for further assistance but have not made a determination if an additional program is needed at this time,” a USDA spokesperson told Fortune in a statement.
A bailout from the Trump administration may help to plug the economic holes left by trade dispute fallouts, but long-term erosion in certain agricultural markets will likely remain, according to Wendong Zhang, an associate professor of applied economics and policy at Cornell University’s SC Johnson School of Business.
“It will compensate for the immediate economic losses due to tariffs, but it doesn’t necessarily improve the long-term competitiveness of agriculture on the global stage,” Zhang told Fortune. “This doesn’t help address the reliability of the U.S. in using these policies on the global stage as well.”
However, economic impacts lingered. While the U.S. regained some of China’s soybean market share from Brazil, that market share remained below pre-retaliatory tariff levels one year after a trade deal was made, according to the USDA report.
These farmers will likely maintain their attitudes about the Trump administration, but the impact of this round of tariffs will be harder to predict and parse through, Zhang explained. Unlike Trump’s first term, when the administration primarily went after trade with China, Trump has imposed tariffs on numerous countries, further complicating the U.S.’ place in global agricultural export markets.
“There’s so many players and so many potential products, and there’s so many moving parts that…it’s really hard to to really know which ones will be affected,” Zhang said.
