President Donald Trump’s sweeping new tariffs are raking in unprecedented sums for the federal government—so much, in fact, that a top budget watchdog says the revenue rivals the impact of creating a brand-new payroll tax or slashing the entire military budget by nearly one-fifth. (These are rough estimates, to be sure, conveyed to communicate the magnitude of the tariffs, not precise contributions to the budget.) But can these massive cash flows, already topping tens of billions monthly, truly put a dent in America’s $37 trillion national debt?
Since his return to the White House, Trump has unleashed a wave of “reciprocal tariffs” on almost every major U.S. trading partner. Roughly $25 billion was collected in July, the CRFB calculated, more than triple the amount from late last year, and surely a fraction of what forthcoming months will yield. The D.C.-based think tank estimates the tariffs will bring in an estimated $1.3 trillion of net new revenue through the end of Trump’s current term and $2.8 trillion through 2034. That represents a $600 billion leap forward from the tariffs in effect as of May.
Experts still caution the impact, though real, remains limited when compared to the sheer scale of the U.S. government’s finances: a whopping $37 trillion. Even with historic tariff gains, these revenues represent only a fraction of total federal income—nowhere near enough to replace income taxes or close the debt gap. In fact, during fiscal year 2025, income taxes and payroll taxes covered over three-quarters of federal revenue.
[This headline has been updated to clarify the CRFB’s finding that the tariffs are likely to have a meaningful impact on the national debt, rather than significantly reduce it overall.]
For this story, Fortune used generative AI to help with an initial draft. An editor verified the accuracy of the information before publishing.
