Hassett knows how to work with politicians, particularly Trump. From 2017 to 2019 he served as chairman of the president’s Council of Economic Advisors, and then was enlisted by the White House to serve as a senior advisor on the coronavirus pandemic. He has also worked with a roster of Republican politicians, serving as John McCain’s chief economic advisor in 2000, adviser to George W. Bush in 2004, and to Mitt Romney in 2012.
The conservative economist has also worked within the Fed before, in the 1990s, though not in decision-making or senior positions, unlike some of his rivals.
Hassett’s allegiance to the White House raises questions for investors, who generally prefer central banks that are firmly independent of politics. Like his peers, Hassett has expressed a dovish outlook on rates, which aligns with President Trump’s way of thinking.
“But in the end, the job of the Fed is to be independent and to work with the group of people that are on the Board of Governors, at the FOMC, to drive a group consensus on where interest rates should be … with the guidance of the Fed chair. But in the end, it’s a committee that votes.
“And I’d be happy to talk to the president every day … until both of us are dead because it’s so much fun to talk.”
Picking up steam is Kevin Warsh, who now sits at odds of 40% on Kalshi.
Bush then nominated Warsh to the Fed’s Board of Governors in 2006. During this term, the Harvard alumnus served as the Board’s representative to the Group of Twenty (G-20) and as an emissary to the emerging and advanced economies in Asia.
He added: “The Fed is an institution whose reach has extended far beyond its grasp. Fundamental reform of monetary and regulatory policy would unlock the benefits of AI to all Americans. The economy would be stronger. Living standards would be higher. Inflation would fall further. And the Fed will have contributed to a new golden age.”
Chris Waller is a familiar face to markets as he is a current member of the Fed’s board, beginning in December 2020 and ending in 2030.
While Waller is a distinguished academic analysts have questioned whether the White House’s attention to Waller stems largely from his dissent from the wait-and-see stance of the Fed more broadly.
Waller currently has Kalshi odds of 6%.
Rieder has gained exposure to public sector bodies, having served as vice chairman of the Borrowing Committee for the U.S. Treasury and as a member of the Fed’s Investment Advisory Committee on Financial Markets. The exec’s odds aren’t great, sitting at 2%—that’s behind even Scott Bessent, who has repeatedly said he doesn’t want the job, both publicly and to President Trump himself.
Of course, investors have been surprised by President Trump before, so the odds must be taken with a pinch of salt. Rieder has been saying what the Oval Office wants to hear, continually advocating for rate cuts this year and arguing the economy is approaching normalcy. Rieder hasn’t been as outspoken in his criticism of the Fed—or its leadership and past decisions—as some of the other candidates vying for the job, but has shared a bullish view on the economy, which coincides with Trump’s calls for cuts.
He continued: “I hear it all the time, where people say, “You know, I’m buying (for example) investment-grade credit”–which by the way, we’re buying as well but in a slightly different way. But people say, “Gosh, if the Fed is in that, they are going to make sure that market holds up well.” I’m not sure I really believe that … I think there is too much overzealousness that, gosh, I’m going to be okay as long as the Fed is there without doing the credit work. I hear it all the time.”
