The chart shared by Slok and Apollo juxtaposes the current path of U.S. core CPI with inflation periods from 1974 to 1982, illustrating a close similarity between the inflation wave of 1973–74 with that of 2021–22. As Slok’s arrows demonstrate, the first “inflation mountain” of the 1970s was followed by another, taking off around 1978. If the pattern holds, the economy would be due to scale another peak starting almost exactly in the fall of 2025.
Although Slok doesn’t say this in his note, the “first inflation mountain” refers to the initial spike, while the “second mountain” represents the even steeper climb that followed several years later, driven by external shocks and policy missteps.
