This ‘economic sugar high’ won’t last, CRFB warns, touting analysis predicting long-term stagnation and $600 billion of annual borrowing through 2028

The analysis highlights several mechanisms through which OBBBA will stimulate growth in the short run. This includes the government borrowing $600 billion per year from 2026 through 2028, reductions in taxes on work and investment, and temporary expansions of incentives for businesses. These policies are expected to create a surge in demand and temporarily increase labor and capital supply, but the CRFB underscores these one-off effects will fade quickly as the economy adjusts—and particularly so if full employment persists.

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