But the chaos is mostly a tech-only phenomenon, the data says. The equal-weight S&P 500—a notional index that values each of the 500 companies equally rather than by total market cap—is actually at a record high this morning because the non-tech companies inside it are doing rather well.
People are buying stocks, just not tech stocks.
Things have changed, however. Retail buyers form a much larger part of the market than they used to—via platforms like Robinhood—and have consistently jumped on the dips, especially since “Liberation Day” last year when President Trump’s tariff plan lopped something like 15% off the S&P before rebounding by 38% by the end of the year, trough to peak.
Arun Jain and his colleagues at JPMorgan have been tracking the growth of net retail buying for months, and it looks like this:
January was “the strongest month for retail activity on record—surpassing buying-the-dip highs of April 25 by 22%,” they told clients in a note sent today and seen by Fortune. The caveat? Stocks are nonetheless going down: “This week saw a notable shift in sentiment. Total retail purchases fell from ~$12B to ~$8.5B,” they said, which partially explains why the S&P has declined in five of the past six sessions. That’s still above average, however. Over the past 12 months, retail buyers have net bought stock at a rate of $6.8 billion per week through Jan. 28, Jain et al. told clients recently.
So, are this morning’s S&P futures buyers right? Is the selloff over? “It is very hard to say that this U.S. tech correction has legs, but a fully invested buy-side does look vulnerable to any bad news,” ING’s Chris Turner told clients this morning.
Here’s a snapshot of the markets ahead of the opening bell in New York this morning:
