In the background, some analysts are now resigned to the notion that Fed Chair Jerome Powell’s remarks on Wednesday were gloomier than expected and that there may not be another interest rate cut in December. The CME FedWatch tool—which tracks bets on future Fed rates—has 66% expecting a December cut and 33% predicting no cut. That’s an unusual level of uncertainty. By comparison, Wall Street had a 99.9% certainty of October’s cut prior to the announcement.
Macquarie’s David Doyle and Chinara Azizova also don’t see another Fed cut in December, according to a note seen by Fortune.
With no promise of cheap new money coming from central banks, and tech investors split on whether AI spending is bullish or bearish, BofA published the results of its monthly fund manager survey. Some of its results should be taken with a pinch of salt, such as this summary of the “Zeitgeist”: “‘I’m long AI, and voting Mamdani,’ 20-something Brooklyn math teacher.”
Here’s a snapshot of the markets ahead of the opening bell in New York this morning:
