On top of that, analysts drew attention to President Trump’s new threat to restrict U.S. tech exports to China. “The measures are in retaliation to China’s latest round of rare earth export restrictions. Asked about the plans, U.S. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said that ‘everything is on the table’ in relation to China, later adding, ‘If these export controls—whether it’s software, engines, or other things—happen, it will likely be in coordination with our G7 allies,’” Peter Schaffrik and his colleagues at RBC told clients this morning.
Retail investors are pulling back, according to Arun Jain and the team at JPMorgan. “With the market showing early signs of vulnerability, there are also emerging signals that retail investor sentiment could be softening. This week, retail investors net bought a much reduced ~$4.2B in cash equities, well below the levels seen over the past two weeks and below the YTD average of $6.4B,” they said in a note to clients.
There may be some good news on the horizon for tech stock investors: Both Goldman Sachs and Yardeni Research told clients this morning that they shouldn’t worry too much about whether AI is a bubble.
“Some characteristics of the current period rhyme with past bubbles … [but] most of the Magnificent Seven … generate outsized levels of free cash flow and engage in stock buybacks and pay dividends, which very few firms did in 1999,” Goldman’s Eric Sheridan said in a panel discussion.
And Ed Yardeni suggested that if tech stocks sell off, traders should buy the dip: “Everyone agrees that valuation multiples are stretched. The S&P 500 forward P/E of the S&P 500 was 22.6 in September. But that’s where it was a few months after the end of the lockdown recession,” he wrote. “These selloffs provided great buying opportunities. Fears of a recession and actual recessions cause P/Es to drop. The economy has demonstrated its resilience since the pandemic. It is likely to remain resilient through the end of the Roaring 2020s, in our opinion.”
Here’s a snapshot of the markets ahead of the opening bell in New York this morning:
