Traders, dismayed by the prospect of a renewed trade war between the U.S. and Europe, reacted by driving down equities all over the world.
S&P 500 futures were down 1.12% this morning—an unusually steep drop. The last session closed flat. (Markets in the U.S. are closed for Martin Luther King Jr. Day.) The STOXX Europe 600 fell 1.25% in early trading, and the U.K.’s FTSE 100 was down 0.49% before lunch. Japan’s Nikkei 225 was down 0.65%. China’s CSI 300 was flat. India’s NIFTY 50 was down 0.42%. Bitcoin declined to $93K. The only major national index having a good day was South Korea, where the KOSPI rose 1.32%.
Gold, the traditional safe-haven investment, hit a new record high of $4,673.4 on the Comex continuous contract.
ING’s Carsten Brzeski and Bert Colijn told clients, “Overall, we can only repeat our earlier estimates that additional tariffs of 25% would probably shave 0.2 percentage points off European GDP growth. However, this model-based estimate definitely falls short in capturing the full impact of new uncertainty and geopolitical tensions as a result of escalated tensions.”
They also cautioned, “As has been the case before, it is not exactly clear how this will work out as there has been no official communication from the White House, yet, just Trump’s announcement on social media.”
The pair also warned that Trump may be underestimating how resistant Europe is going to be. “While Europe, at least initially, seems to be determined to stand up against the latest tariff threat and the U.S. President’s claims on Greenland, the reality is that Europe is still dependent on the U.S. in many ways, both from an economic and security point of view. This was likely one of the central reasons behind the E.U.’s agreement last summer to agree to a trade deal with the U.S. that did not benefit Europe. Whether the new tariff threat and the situation in Greenland turn out to be the tipping point that finally triggers European unity and Europe’s rise as a geopolitical power remains to be seen. What is clear is that a full-blown trade war between the E.U. and the U.S. would leave only losers.”
At UBS, Paul Donovan’s morning note warned that new tariffs could rebound against American consumers. “Threatened U.S. tariffs appear more serious than those relating to Iran … they imply U.S. consumer prices of goods from the E.U. and UK will increase 4% to 10% (within about six months). This may reinforce the narrative of the U.S. affordability crisis.”
“Policy uncertainty is resurrected for U.S. businesses. This has constrained investment and hiring, but might have faded as firms adapt. Uncertainty on this scale may again put U.S. corporate activity on pause.”
There is also the question of whether Trump has enough domestic political capital to sustain his desire to conquer Greenland.
Here’s a snapshot of the markets ahead of the opening bell in New York this morning:
