The filing starts the timer on a hot IPO summer, with the other rumored trillion-dollar listings—Anthropic and OpenAI—set to follow. Anthropic confidentially filed its prospectus on Monday.
The question on Wall Street’s mind is whether there’s enough money in the public markets to absorb them all. Nasdaq controversially rewrote its rules last month in anticipation of the megacap arrivals, allowing the largest IPOs to enter its prestigious Nasdaq 100 index after just 15 trading days, rather than waiting months for the index’s regular reconstitution; and scrapping its 10% minimum float requirement in the process.
SpaceX is expected to float barely 4% of the company, and Nasdaq index funds will be forced to absorb SpaceX shares mechanically, at whatever price prevails. That hands early SpaceX investors a ready exit in what would be the biggest payday in startup history.
SpaceX’s lockup period, like everything else about the company, is unorthodox: instead of a standard 180-day cliff, insiders can sell up to 20% of their locked shares once the company reports its first quarterly earnings, with an additional 10% if the stock is trading at least 30% above the IPO price.The shares unlock in staggered tranches starting after the company’s second earnings report; expected to be around late July or early August. Musk himself can’t sell for 366 days. The structure is designed to gradually increase the float—and accelerate SpaceX’s inclusion in the Nasdaq 100.
