If the White House handing out $2,000 checks to all U.S. citizens sounded too good to be true, it just might be. At least, that’s now the sentiment among bettors.
Indeed, the odds tracker isn’t even assuming the promise of a $2,000 check—it’s based on the odds of a million Americans being given notice of an $1,000 check, and the verified details being reported (not the payouts completed) by January 1.
In the days since President Trump made the pledge, members of his cabinet have poured cold water on the plans. On ABC’s This Week with George Stephanopoulos on Novmber 9, shortly after the post from Trump, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent admitted he hadn’t yet talked to the president about the dividend plan, adding it would require Congress to pass legislation.
Bessent also attempted to unpick the form the tariff stimulus would take, perhaps not a check but in relief already signed into law: “The $2,000 dividend could come in lots of forms … it could be just the tax decreases that we are seeing on the president’s agenda. No tax on tips, no tax on overtime, no tax on Social Security, deductibility of auto loans. Those are substantial deductions that are being financed in the tax bill.”
