“It’s up to, of course, the United States government,” Huang said. “And we’re in dialogue with them, but it’s too soon to know.”
As a result of all the uncertainty, analysts predict Nvidia will not allude to China revenue in the earnings report.
“I suspect they will not count, nor forecast China revenue, there’s too much uncertainty involved,” said Karl Freund, founder and principal analyst at Cabrian-AI Research.
Jack Gold, founder and principal analyst at J.Gold Associates, told Fortune that Nvidia now has two primary groups to please: stockholders and the Trump administration. “They’re caught between a rock and a hard place,” he said. “It’s a really strange situation we’re in now where the government in the U.S. actually has their hands into the pockets, into the wallets of these companies.”
“I do believe that everyone’s concerned about an AI bubble,” said Freund, though he added that those concerns have lasted for three years already. He did not, he emphasized, think it would pop now. “I think there still two to five years of growth left,” he said.
Gold agreed, saying there were “at least several quarters, if not a couple of years of good profits” for Nvidia, but he cautioned at some point, if the market crashed, that money spent on chips would go away.
“It concerns me,” he said. “This time, I’m sure the earnings will still be great—[Nvidia is] selling everything they can build at a ridiculously inflated prices, which is fine, if you can get away with that.” But from a broader market perspective, he added, the massive AI data center build-outs “can’t go on forever.”
That’s why, said Freund, Huang is actually working to get investor attention to shift from the data center-centric view to other areas of Nvidia’s business, including its automotive and robotics work: “That’s his game right now, how to get investors to shift to a more holistic view of AI as it moves out of the data center and into the real world.”
But those investors are likely more interested in the here and now—what tomorrow’s numbers show. Let the watch parties begin.
