The conflict between Israel and Iran escalated over the weekend as both sides appeared to expand their range of targets, including energy infrastructure.
But despite Israel’s aggressive air strikes and even suggestions that they are aimed at the regime itself, Iran has not responded in kind, launching fewer missiles than expected and at a declining rate.
That’s because Israel has targeted Iran’s stockpile of missiles as well as its ability to launch them, according to the Institute for the Study of War.
On Friday and Saturday, Iran conducted six waves of attacks using 100-200 missiles, ISW estimated. But since Saturday, Iran has only conducted two waves of attacks using 35-40 missiles each.
Using the high end of each ISW estimate, that means the initial waves averaged about 33 missiles each, while the subsequent waves have averaged 20 missiles.
“Iran has used significantly fewer munitions in its response to Israel than originally planned because the IDF destroyed and damaged missile launchers and silos that Iran planned to use to retaliate against Israel,” ISW wrote.
Before the current conflict started, U.S. and Israeli estimates put Iran’s stockpile of missiles at about 2,000, but not all of them have enough range to reach Israel, according to ISW.
If that number is accurate, then Iran’s current rate of missile launches at Israel may not be sustainable for much longer.
Other analysts have previously noted that Iran has few viable military options, and its overall capabilities have been severely degraded by Israel.
The Pars field is critical to Iran’s domestic energy production, and more than 90% of Iran’s electricity is generated by gas-powered plants, according to ISW.
“Disruptions to Iran’s natural gas production will likely worsen the country’s ongoing energy crisis and lead to more widespread electricity blackouts, however,” ISW said on Sunday. “Iranians have previously protested against the regime in response to energy shortages. Demonstrations over the rising gas prices in 2017 and 2018 escalated into broader challenges for the regime’s stability.”
