“While anxiety over the effects of AI on today’s labor market is widespread, our data suggests it remains largely speculative,” the report said. “The picture of AI’s impact on the labor market that emerges from our data is one that largely reflects stability, not major disruption at an economy-wide level.”
In order to measure AI’s impact on the labor force, the Yale Budget Lab tracked occupational mix, or changes in the types of jobs people in the U.S. have held, as well as length of unemployment for jobs with high exposure to AI.
While there have been changes in occupational mix since the 2022 release of ChatGPT, the rate of change has not increased enough to signal a massive shift, the report said. In addition, the length of unemployment for individuals with jobs that have high exposure to AI remained the same over time. Both metrics signaled no evidence of a massive labor disruption, from AI or another factor.
“No matter which way you look at the data, at this exact moment, it just doesn’t seem like there’s major macroeconomic effects here,” Martha Gimbel, executive director and cofounder of the Yale Budget Lab, told Fortune.
“We suspect some firms are trying to dress up layoffs as a good news story rather than bad news, such as past over-hiring,” the Oxford report said.
According to Yale Budget Lab’s Gimbel, one reason companies are attributing layoffs to AI is a way to avoid telling investors the company has had trouble navigating dwindling immigration, tariffs, and other policy uncertainties that inevitably shake up the labor force. AI-related anxiety has allowed the technology to become a convenient scapegoat for CEOs when it comes time to face skeptical investors.
“If you’re a CEO, what are you going to say? ‘Hi, I’m a really bad CEO. I totally mismanaged the macroeconomic situation for the last couple of years, so now a bunch of you are going to have to lose your jobs, but shareholders should keep trusting me moving forward?’” Gimbel said. “No, you’re not going to say that. You’re going to say, ‘The world is changing quickly, and we’re going to rightsize the company and make investments moving forward so we can be the most productive version of ourselves to win the future.’”
“Technological change does not happen in a vacuum,” she said.
If there are big changes to the job market as a result of AI, Gimbel said it will be reflected in massive changes to the mix of jobs people hold and the length of unemployment for people with high exposure to AI in their previous jobs. Otherwise, she noted, it’s not time to sound the alarm.
“If you think the AI apocalypse for the labor market is coming, it’s not helpful to declare that it’s here before it’s here,” she said. “Any of this can change. That’s why we’re tracking it … Just because a technology can do something doesn’t mean that everyone loses their jobs tomorrow. It doesn’t mean they won’t lose their jobs in five years, though.”
