Gen Z’s fascination with luxury watches has been one of the more surprising consumer trends of the last few years. But a steep tariff hike on Switzerland could threaten its market: American youth.
“Companies cannot realistically absorb the tariff, which means retail prices in the U.S. will rise sharply,” Marcus Altenburg, managing partner at Swiss law firm Goldblum & Partners, told Fortune.
“For many American collectors, the 39% tariff instantly turned new releases from Swiss brands into a luxury few can justify,” Joshua Ganjei, CEO of European Watch Company in Boston, told Fortune. “The pre‑owned market is now the best option for value and immediate availability—no import headaches and no sticker shock.”
That shift to secondhand is already underway, since availability in the primary market is so limited, Bhatt said.
Altenburg expects Gen Z and millennial buyers, who tend to be more price‑sensitive than older collectors, to gravitate to domestic pre‑owned and grey‑market sellers to sidestep tariffs. Ganjei said his company has “seen a dramatic increase in purchasing volume over the past few months as U.S. buyers shy away from international sellers.”
On the other hand, watchfluencer Bhatt said younger consumers still crave the “social currency” that comes with a Rolex, Patek Philippe, or Audemars Piguet, even if they pay more to get it.
“They also understand the status that it gives them,” Bhatt said. The social cachet of a Swiss-made watch plays out daily on social media platforms like TikTok, Instagram, and influencer channels, boosting aspirational demand, he said.
Bhatt doesn’t expect demand for the most coveted brands to vanish, but says mid‑tier Swiss names without top brand prestige could see sales slow. The added cost may also push Americans to buy while traveling in Europe—where they can sometimes reclaim value added tax (VAT)—and bring pieces back themselves, potentially avoiding tariffs altogether, Bhatt said.
“It could be that allocation of pieces is shifted toward other territories over time,” he added, “because they see demand increase in Europe or the Middle East and diminish a bit in the U.S.”
For the Swiss industry, the stakes go beyond sticker prices. Altenburg warned that sustained U.S. weakness could pressure employment and supply chains in watchmaking regions, while forcing brands to rethink distribution, pricing, and even corporate structures to blunt the tariff’s impact.
Bhatt thinks marketing to younger generations will also matter more in a cooling market.
“When the market’s high, they rely just on brand value and brand name,” he said. “When the market is low, they need people to understand the rarity and complexity and difficulty in producing these rare watches.”
All said, the tariff probably won’t kill Gen Z’s fascination with luxury watches—but it could redraw the roadmap for how and where they buy them.
The social media posts of vintage Daytonas and Nautiluses are unlikely to disappear. What may change is that, for many young Americans, the product may increasingly be secondhand, and possibly stamped by a boutique in Paris or Milan.
