The wealthy in New York City are on the move, spurred by what some are calling the “Mamdani Effect”—a sudden surge of outward migration in anticipation of Zohran Mamdani, a democratic socialist, likely taking the reins as mayor this November.
Since Mamdani seized the primary, home sales entering contract in Westchester County have jumped 15% compared with last year, according to Harrison data. Local agents now speak freely of the “Mamdani effect,” a shorthand for the collective anxiety—and strategic thinking—rippling through affluent New Yorkers who fear the prospect of increased taxes and sweeping socialist housing reforms.
“I have never seen this type of reaction to a mayor,” she said. “It’s been pretty drastic, after he won the primary we had a companywide call on implications for business because of the ‘rent freezes.’” Describing the Mamdani effect, she said “people are afraid it will be bad for business.”
To foot the bill, Mamdani plans a new 2% tax targeting New Yorkers earning more than $1 million annually—a move his campaign says could generate $4 billion per year for early child care, public housing, and more. While working-class and immigrant communities hail these policies as overdue relief, higher earners are calculating their exit strategies.
Boyd said Westchester is well positioned, as are other regional markets like Jersey City across the Hudson River as well as Nassau and Suffolk Counties on Long Island, to benefit from the “Mamdani effect” and attract new businesses and people.
“I was talking about this the other day with a client of ours — for some NYC companies Mamdani will be the final straw and they will relocate to South Florida or Dallas or Nashville — but for many others they will seek a regional alternative,” he recalled.
Carter said much of what she sees of the Mamdani Effect is how heavily taxed New Yorkers are already, noting that wealthy New Yorkers have been known to split their time in Florida for tax reasons. She said she’s heard of people moving, while there’s another subset of people who are going to see how the election turns out. She said one client sold his mother’s apartment over the summer and has been waiting “to see if he wants to reinvest in NYC.”
While income taxes in Westchester are lower than those in New York City, the county has some of the highest property taxes in the country, money that helps fund Westchester’s competitive public schools and public amenities.
Still, despite the headlines (and articles like this one), New York City’s housing market continues to show surprising resilience. Home prices slipped 1.2% nationwide in August, but New York’s edged up 0.3% month-over-month, per Realtor.com data. Nationally, homes are sitting longer on the market, but New York homes averaged 58 days compared to the national 60-day average.
Carter said Mamdani might be campaigning on a very progressive platform, but there are going to be limits on what he actually accomplish. “Freezing rent and turning NYC socialist overnight will not happen.”
As for herself, she won’t be one of the people leaving New York, telling Fortune that she, her husband and her two young boys have moved to a townhouse in the Park Slope section of Brooklyn.
“We definitely are not going anywhere—we love it.” There’s just a lot of bad vibes, she added. “I do think people are genuinely scared of the unknown.”
