“Right now, we are at a decision-making point and very close to a recession. I’m worried about something worse than a recession if this isn’t handled well,” Dalio told NBC in April. “We have something that’s much more profound, we have a breaking down of the monetary order.”
While executive predictions and investment bank analysis can be a more reliable way to predict an economic downfall, there are several oddball recession indicators that come straight from consumers themselves.
In its earning call this week, Campbell’s CEO Mick Beekhuizen said there is a “growing preference for home-cooked meals,” adding it was the highest level since early 2020. And that could be a bad sign for the economy.
Consumers dining out less and opting more for cheaper alternatives like Campbell’s soup signal a tightening budget. Meanwhile, spending on discretionary items like crackers and chips declined, Beekhuizen said.
Campbell’s is already starting to see a decline in discretionary spending on snacks—and so are some other major snack food companies.
Since 2019, the average price of a large pizza at the top five chains is up 30% to $18.19, Richard Shank, an analyst at market research firm Technomic, told Bloomberg. Meanwhile, Nestle reported frozen pizza is one of its “underperformers” due to pricing, according to Bloomberg.
The idea is that when the economy is struggling, sales of affordable luxury items like lipstick, nail polish, and perfume tend to increase. Although consumers may be tightening their belts, they want something affordable to feel a sense of normalcy—i.e. a $5 lipstick from the convenience store.
Another odd recession indicator is the men’s underwear index. Alan Greenspan, who served as Federal Reserve chair from 1987 to 2006, followed this index, which assumes people treat men’s underwear purchases as discretionary spending and they’ll purchase less of it during recessions.
One TikTok user also suggested that more wealthy people are moving to increasingly exclusive places and that that’s a recession signal.
It’s a game of cat and mouse that’s been going on for generations, but I feel like it always accelerates before or during recessions. Each social tier is grasping at the level above them and that “upper” level pulls up the drawbridge to keep them out. #recessionindicators #recessionindicator #recession #recessioncore #wealthy #wealthymindset #wealthylifestyle
“There are new levels of exclusivity,” the user said. “People are climbing this social ladder and trying to be around the rich, trying to be rich, all that stuff, and improve their lives. The people who are already in there—the established rich—are moving away.
“There’s new tiers opening,” she added, citing airlines adding more exclusive lounges.
“It feels like each time the 99% break that ceiling—or at least crack it—the rich build another level with another glass ceiling. I think it’s about to be more severe now that we’re kind of in decline,” she said.
