Copper had its best year since 2009, fueled by near-term supply tightness and bets that demand for the metal key in electrification will outpace production.
“The expectation for future US import tariffs on refined copper has resulted in more than 650,000 tons of metal entering the country, creating tightness ex-US,” wrote Natalie Scott-Gray, senior metals analyst at StoneX Financial Ltd. She noted two-thirds of global visible stocks now are held within COMEX.
The near-term outlook for copper demand growth has been clouded by weakness in China, the world’s top consumer of the red metal. The country’s property market has been stuck in a yearslong downturn that’s dented the need for copper plumbing and wiring, while consumer spending has been sluggish, weighing on appetite for finished goods such as electronic appliances.
Still, robust momentum in global copper demand is expected over the long term. BloombergNEF estimates consumption could increase by more than a third by 2035 in its baseline scenario.
The drivers of this trend include the ongoing shift to cleaner energy sources such as solar panels and wind turbines, growing adoption of electric vehicles and the expansion of power grids.
Copper settled 1.1% lower at $12,558.50 a ton in London. Prices hit a record $12,960 on Monday.
