Andrej Karpathy used AI to gauge which U.S. professions are most vulnerable to the technology amid growing fears that a jobs apocalypse may be headed for the economy.
While the overall weighted exposure was 4.9, Karpathy’s data also showed that professions earning more than $100,000 a year had the worst average score (6.7), while the those earning less than $35,000 had the lowest exposure (3.4).
His chart quickly drew attention online, with many predicting doom for white-collar workers. But Karpathy soon removed the data.
He didn’t respond to questions about how it’s been misinterpreted and what the correct interpretation should be.
For example, software developers, computer programmers, database administrators, data scientists, mathematicians, financial analysts, paralegals, writers, editors, graphic designers, and market researchers got scores of 9.
That’s as sophisticated AI tools are increasingly being used to crunch numbers and produce content, performing tasks in minutes that used to require knowledge workers hours, days, or even weeks to do.
While AI is seen as a productivity enhancer for experienced employees, evidence is mounting that companies have less need for entry-level workers. More companies are also announcing layoffs and citing AI, though skeptics see it as a scapegoat to correct pandemic-era overhiring.
Meanwhile, Karpathy’s chart showed that construction laborers, roofers, painters, janitors, ironworkers, and grounds maintenance workers got scores of just 1. Similarly, home healthcare aides, nursing assistants, massage therapists, dental hygienists, veterinary assistants, manicurists, barbers, and bartenders got scores of 2.
Like Karpathy’s data, Anthropic’s paper said AI can theoretically cover most tasks in business and finance, management, computer science, math, legal, and office administration roles. While AI adoption is still lagging, Anthropic said the workers most at risk are older, highly educated and well paid.
Citadel Securities also noted that the daily use of generative AI for work remains “unexpectedly stable” and currently “presents little evidence of any imminent displacement risk.” Instead of a collapsing economy, new business formation in the U.S. is rapidly expanding, and the construction of massive AI data centers is currently driving a localized boom in construction hiring.
Furthermore, if automation expanded at the breakneck pace Citrini fears, demand for compute would inherently rise, pushing up its marginal cost.
“If the marginal cost of compute rises above the marginal cost of human labor for certain tasks, substitution will not occur, creating a natural economic boundary,” Citadel Securities said.
