The delay would cost Robertson an estimated $84,000, with $4,000 of daily “liquidation damages” mounting for each day the project dragged past its Nov. 1 deadline.
Despite immigrants’ role in the construction industry—and the broader economy—the Trump administration has taken substantial efforts to curb immigration. On Friday, the White House announced that most foreigners seeking green cards must go back to their home countries in order to apply, a policy shift that could impact hundreds of thousands of foreigners seeking permanent residency in the U.S.
But it’s not just construction jobs at risk because of the immigration crackdown, economists warn.
“If the supply of immigrants is cut off, as it seems to be with the borders effectively closed these days, I think it will get much harder for the construction industry to fill positions,” Ken Simonson, chief economist at AGC, told Fortune.
“But the even bigger, broader concern is that the population as a whole is going to stop growing, and that will mean less demand for homes, for schools, for retail, for many consumer-facing kinds of construction projects, and a general slowdown in economic growth that sooner or later affects every kind of construction. I think that’s a real risk.”
“There certainly is turnover in construction,” he said. “There are a lot of retirements happening, and so to keep that construction employment rising, we do need a pool of new entrants to the workforce.”
“Everything is going to be passed down to the consumer,” Payan told Fortune.
Historically, immigrants have been able to fill some of the gaps in construction’s labor supply, but mass deportation efforts have impacted more than just these foreign-born workers. Elizabeth Cox, a professional research assistant at the University of Colorado Denver and co-author of the NBER study on ICE’s impact on construction labor participation, said fear has been one of a few drivers of job losses.
“A lot of this is likely due to the public perception of ICE activity, and that people are a little bit more fearful than they have been in previous instances,” Cox told Fortune.
While deportation directly removes someone from the labor market, it also produces chilling effects, discouraging immigrants, particularly those undocumented, from participating in everyday activities, Cox said.
Those chilling effects account for why foreign-born workers may no longer participate in the labor market, but does not fully account for why immigration crackdowns would lead to fewer U.S.-born workers.
Cox explained fewer immigrants generally leads to less growth, which can disincentivize a workplace from hiring in general. Immigrants fulfill a complementary role in the workplace, meaning their jobs necessitate roles to support their work that may be more likely to be held by U.S.-born workers. For example, at a construction site, fewer laborers would necessitate fewer electricians to be working on site, as well as fewer managers to oversee the work.
But these designations are meant for mostly seasonal or intermittent workers, not construction jobs that have yearlong demand. Visas are often granted for only up to one year, while many construction jobs require seasoned workers with certifications and good insurance.
“You need workers for at least a few years to train them and get them to be quite good at what they’re doing, so that they can deliver the project on time, on cost, and of course do it well,” Payan said.
Moreover, more automation in construction doesn’t necessarily reduce jobs, as humans still need to oversee the work of the robots. Construction firms can also raise wages, but run into the problem of competing for the same pool of workers.
“They’re really at a quandary as to what to do,” Payan said. “Construction company owners and CEOs, they’re really at this point of reaching into the depths to compete for the available labor. It essentially means greater costs, that’s it.”
