We nailed more payor CEOs losing their jobs (Andrew Witty and Lois Quam) and cell therapy coming back into fashion (four acquisitions, notably Capstan by Abbvie at $2.1B). Otherwise, we were spectacularly poor. We were too skeptical about how long AI point solutions would remain healthcare investor darlings, propping up seemingly nonsensical businesses, and there was only one “down” health tech IPO, Hinge, that has done nicely since. We expected Medicare Advantage (MA) to come roaring back in 2025 but the Trump team has not put their thumb on the scales. We are surprised (and not sure we agree) that the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services (CMS) is forecasting MA to shrink in 2026 by 1 million members. We also expected to see risk adjustment and “Stars” eased and more generous premium increases.
After months of on-again, off-again tariffs, public health chaos, and sadly the cancellation of billions of research funding and healthcare coverage support for millions, we hope 2026 is calmer. Now on to our predictions for 2026 …
Finally, we are going to double down on our 2025 prediction that Apple does Glucose monitoring well. We have no insider knowledge, but we sure hope that this comes true since the public health benefit could be massive.
We look forward to reporting back on these in a year and hope that our crystal ball proves clearer for 2026. We wish you all a joyful holiday season and healthful new year.
The opinions expressed in Fortune.com commentary pieces are solely the views of their authors and do not necessarily reflect the opinions and beliefs of Fortune.
