Good morning. Geoff Colvin in for Diane today. Is AI enabling the economy to grow without any need for new jobs? If that happens, what kind of world will we face? It’s a question that’s top of mind for leaders given recent events.
A recession could clarify the big picture considerably, they say. That’s when workers in routine jobs tend to get laid off and not brought back when the recession ends. Consider for example the 2001 recession following the internet bust. CEOs had been working hard to use the internet in their businesses, reducing headcount in the process, but firing lots of employees is unpleasant, and bosses often put it off. The recession forced them to see how many employees they didn’t need anymore, and it was a lot. Economists call the aftermath “the jobless recovery.”
History tells us not to worry. General purpose technologies such as AI don’t come around very often, but when they do, they always eliminate vast swaths of jobs. Panic ensues. Then unlimited human creativity invents new jobs that deliver more value overall, and living standards rise. The process may take many years, but it has never failed us. Now AI, with its promise of developing intelligence greater than our own, forces us to confront a momentous question: Is this time different?
