A cyclical weather phenomenon that can drive flooding in one continent and drought in another looks increasingly likely to emerge this year.
The looming El Niño could be particularly powerful. There’s a 67% chance it may evolve into a strong or very strong event — what’s informally known as a “Super El Niño” — heading into 2027.
El Niño was first observed in the 1600s by Peruvian fishermen, who noticed that Pacific waters were unusually warm around Christmas time in some years. They named this naturally occurring phenomenon “El Niño de Navidad” in reference to the Christ Child.
There’s no fixed timetable for when El Niño emerges. It typically appears every two to seven years and varies in strength and duration. The last event was in 2023-2024.
El Niño is part of a larger Pacific climate cycle known as the El Niño-Southern Oscillation, or ENSO. The cycle swings between El Niño, its cooler counterpart La Niña and a neutral phase in between. During La Niña, the east-to-west trade winds become stronger, pushing warm water further west and resulting in a cooler-than-usual eastern Pacific.
The immense size of the Pacific Ocean, which covers around a third of the planet’s surface, gives ENSO an outsized influence on global weather. While similar climate patterns exist in the Atlantic and Indian oceans, they don’t have the same reach. El Niño and La Niña events usually peak between December and January, although their effects can linger for months.
“Super El Niño” isn’t an official term used by forecasters such as NOAA and the World Meteorological Organization. It’s been popularized this year as a very strong El Niño looks to be on the cards.
Very strong El Niños are rare. There have only been around a handful since 1950 and the last one was in 2015-2016. Severe weather events are more likely to occur when there’s a stronger El Niño, but they’re not guaranteed.
El Niño doesn’t hit every region in the same way. The effects typically materialize in the tropics first, before spreading across Australia, Asia, the Americas and Africa.
The Atlantic hurricane season often becomes quieter during El Niño years because increased wind shear — a sudden change in wind speed or direction — tears apart developing storms. The hurricanes that do form could still be highly destructive, but a lower frequency could reduce the harm to communities and infrastructure and limit disruption to oil and gas assets in the Gulf of Mexico.
By contrast, typhoon activity across the Pacific tends to increase during El Niño years. The warmer water provides more fuel for these tropical storms, meaning Asia could face increased risk of typhoon damage.
El Niño is one of the world’s most closely watched climate signals because it offers clues about storms, drought risk, crop yields and energy demand months in advance.
Utilities use ENSO forecasts to gauge demand for heating and cooling. Higher temperatures boost electricity consumption for air conditioning. This can strain power grids and trigger blackouts. Less rainfall reduces output from hydroelectric dams.
Commodity traders watch for threats to crops, mining operations, oil and gas production and shipping routes. Drought can lower water levels in the Panama Canal, which connects the Atlantic and Pacific oceans, slowing cargo traffic through one of the world’s busiest shipping bottlenecks.
Some crops benefit from El Niño. Higher rainfall in California, for example, is good for avocado and almond yields. However, many staples, including rice, wheat, palm oil, coffee and sugar, are produced in areas likely to face drier and hotter conditions.
Scientists are still debating how climate change may influence the frequency and intensity of El Niño. Earlier models predicted that the natural phenomenon might become more common as the planet warmed. Yet much of the 21st century has instead been dominated by La Niña conditions, underscoring how much scientists still don’t understand about the ENSO cycle.
There is growing agreement that a hotter world can intensify many of El Niño’s impacts. Higher temperatures can worsen drought in already dry regions, while warmer air holds more moisture, which can make downpours heavier during storms.
