The oil major has been more seriously discussing the feasibility and merits of a BP takeover with its advisers in recent weeks, the people said, asking not be identified because the information is private.
Any final decision will likely depend on whether BP stock continues to slide, the people said. Shares of BP have already lost nearly a third of their value in the last 12 months as a turnaround plan has fallen flat with investors and oil prices tumbled. Shell may also wait for BP to reach out or for another suitor to make a first move, and its current work could help it get prepared for such a scenario, some of the people said.
Deliberations are in the early stages and Shell may opt to focus on share buybacks and bolt-on acquisitions rather than a megamerger, they said. Other large energy companies have also been analyzing whether they would want to bid for BP, the people said.
“As we have said many times before, we are sharply focused on capturing the value in Shell through continuing to focus on performance, discipline and simplification,” a spokesperson for Shell said in an emailed statement. A representative for BP declined to comment.
A successful combination of Shell and BP would be one of the oil industry’s largest-ever takeovers, bringing together the iconic British majors in a deal that’s been discussed on and off for decades. The companies were once close rivals — with a similar size, reach and global clout — but their paths have diverged in recent years.
Shell’s stock is down about 13% in London trading over the last 12 months, giving the company a market value of £149 billion ($197 billion). That’s more than double the £56 billion market capitalization of BP.
Sawan told analysts Friday that Shell will “of course” keep looking at inorganic opportunities but will be prudent and “the bar is high.” Any deal would need to add to free cash flow per share in a relatively short period, he said.
“I have said in the past that we want to be value hunters. Today, value hunting – in my view – is buying back more Shell” stock, Sawan said on the conference call.
He added that “we have to have our own house in order” before looking at sizable acquisitions, and that the company has “more work to do” to reach its full potential despite the progress it’s made over the past couple years. Shell is doing deals where it has the capability to create value, such as with its purchase of liquefied natural gas trader Pavilion Energy Pte, Sawan said.
