As the tumultuous year of 2023 comes to a close, Wall Street’s prominent forecasters, who defied the prevailing pessimism at the start of the year, are now looking ahead to 2024. These analysts, including Tom Lee of Fundstrat, Brian Belski of BMO Capital Markets, John Stoltzfus of Oppenheimer, Savita Subramanian of Bank of America, and Ryan Detrick of Carson Group, correctly foresaw the stock market’s rebound this year, countering the prevalent expectations of prolonged pain after the challenges of 2022.
At the beginning of 2023, key forecasters such as JPMorgan Chase’s Marko Kolanovic and Morgan Stanley’s Mike Wilson were anticipating continued market struggles due to higher interest rates and an impending economic downturn. However, the group of optimistic analysts, including Tom Lee, John Stoltzfus, and Brian Belski, projected a recovery based on their belief in excessive market pessimism.
Reflecting on their accurate forecasts for 2023, these analysts now provide their outlooks for 2024. With the S&P 500 on the brink of a record high at around 4,768 points, these bullish forecasters anticipate more strength in 2024. Here’s a breakdown of their 2023 approaches and their predictions for the upcoming year.
Tom Lee, Fundstrat:
- 2023 Approach: Lee predicted a 20% rally for the S&P 500, emphasizing diminishing inflation, companies’ ability to handle higher rates, and reduced volatility.
- 2024 Outlook: Maintaining a bullish stance, Lee sets an S&P 500 target of 5,200 for 2024.
Brian Belski, BMO:
- 2023 Approach: Belski identified excessively negative market sentiment and anticipated demand for oversold assets.
- 2024 Outlook: Expecting a resilient labor market, easing consumer-price pressures, and rate cuts in H2 2024, Belski projects an S&P 500 target of 5,100.
John Stoltzfus, Oppenheimer:
- 2023 Approach: Stoltzfus predicted the S&P 500 closing at 4,400, highlighting lower inflation and appropriately sized earnings estimates.
- 2024 Outlook: Remaining optimistic, he forecasts the S&P 500 reaching 5,200 by the end of 2024.
Savita Subramanian, Bank of America:
- 2023 Approach: Subramanian shifted to a bullish stance mid-year, upgrading her year-end S&P 500 target to 4,600.
- 2024 Outlook: Remaining bullish, she predicts an S&P 500 target of 5,000, citing a soft landing and adaptability to higher rates.
Ryan Detrick, Carson Group:
- 2023 Approach: Detrick expected economic resilience, bet on cooling inflation, and added stock exposure during market turmoil.
- 2024 Outlook: Anticipating no recession in 2024, Detrick favors small-caps, mid-caps, and financials for “low double-digit” equity returns.
As the seers eye a strong finish to 2023, their projections for 2024 signal continued optimism, driven by factors such as a solid labor market and confidence in potential Federal Reserve rate cuts.
