Iran’s regime may be wondering if an emerging deal to extend its ceasefire with the U.S. is too good to be true.
But the most contentious issues must be settled during a 60-day window for talks. That includes Iran’s uranium as well as the U.S. permanently ending sanctions and releasing Iran’s frozen assets abroad, estimated at $25 billion.
The U.S. would also maintain its military presence in the region and only withdraw once a final deal is reached, Axios said. But Trump would still give up significant leverage.
Sen. Lindsey Graham, R-S.C., warned against a deal that effectively recognizes Tehran’s ability to control the strait, saying it would represent a major shift in the regional balance of power and eventually become a “nightmare” for Israel.
Similarly, Sen. Roger Wicker, R-Miss., said a 60-day extension would be a disaster and that “Everything accomplished by Operation Epic Fury would be for naught!” Sen. Ted Cruz, R-Texas, also piled on.
Despite the U.S.-Israeli bombardment devastating Iran’s military and economy, Tehran retained enough combat power to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed, using missiles, drones and fast-attack boats.
Meanwhile, Trump has signaled reluctance to resume attacks and break the ceasefire while also cutting short an effort to revive Hormuz traffic by using Navy warships to protect tankers.
With Iran holding the global economy hostage and oil markets due to go off a cliff in a matter of weeks, it has refused to budge on much of its demands.
But even the regime isn’t sure if it can believe the U.S. offer. That’s as previous rounds of talks earlier this year and last year ended in the U.S. dropping bombs on Iran.
As a result, Tehran will be focused on evidence that the U.S. military will back down, he added, and trusting the U.S. will be a “gamble” that Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei will ultimately decide on making.
Meanwhile, one of Iran’s primary objectives in negotiations is to secure its sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz, ISW added.
At the same time, the U.S. naval blockade isn’t eroding Iran’s grip because ships that haven’t entered or exited an Iranian port are still free to pass, even if they have accepted conditions imposed by the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps.
“The Iranians are likely aware of that fact, which is one of the reasons they are stalling and delaying the negotiations process,” it said. “The US and the world should not allow Iran to impose a new reality on this critical international waterway. If negotiations do not lead rapidly to an agreement to reopen the strait under the previous, internationally recognized transit scheme, then it will unfortunately be necessary to resort to force.”
