Van Dyke’s wagers won him $409,881, according to the U.S. Justice Department, but now the soldier’s wagers have earned him something else: a series of criminal charges related to insider trading that come with the prospect of decades in prison.
According to the Justice Department, Van Dyke used classified information he acquired as part of planning for the mission to place his successful bets. He did so despite signing non-disclosure agreements that forbade him from divulging sensitive information related to military operations.
Polymarket is a platform where users take positions in so-called events contracts that offer shifting odds on a wide variety of real life scenarios ranging from elections to sports games to the weather, and where users take “yes” or “no” positions on the contract. In the case of Van Dyke’s wagers, he took the Yes position on wagers like “U.S. Forces in Venezuela . . . by January 31, 2026”, “Maduro out by . . . January 31, 2026”, “Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by . . . January 31,” and “Trump invokes War Powers against Venezuela by . . . January 31.”
In the days following Maduro’s capture, a series of reports appeared in the press highlighting the unusual wagers. In response, Van Dyke sought to cover his tracks by deleting his account from Polymarket and changing the email account tied to a cryptocurrency exchange where he had initially parked his winnings.
According to Polymarket, the company identified suspicious behavior and contacted federal authorities.
“Last month, we published our enhanced market integrity rules to combat insider trading. When we identified a user trading on classified government information, we referred the matter to the DOJ & cooperated with their investigation. Insider trading has no place on Polymarket. Today’s arrest is proof the system works,” said a spokesperson.
