President Donald Trump announced Sunday that the U.S. Navy would immediately impose a blockade on the Strait of Hormuz after ceasefire talks with Iran failed to produce a deal.
That would turn the tables on the Islamic republic, which has effectively kept the narrow waterway closed with missile and drone strikes, keeping one-fifth of the world’s oil and liquid natural gas bottled up in the Persian Gulf.
At the same time as it’s been halting global supplies, Iran is letting its own oil exports through the strait, capitalizing on the massive spike in prices for crude.
But a U.S. blockade of Hormuz would cut off the financial windfall Tehran is reaping and further hobble an economy that was crashing even before the war started six weeks ago.
Retired Admiral James Stavridis, who previously served as NATO’s supreme allied commander, estimated that blockading the Strait of Hormuz would require two aircraft carrier strike groups that would provide air cover, plus a dozen destroyers and frigates operating outside the Persian Gulf.
“So you try and bottle it up on both sides,” Stavridis added. “The bottom line: this is a big task, and it’s a big gamble.”
Since the war started, the U.S. has deployed a Marine Expeditionary Unit, which typically includes three warships and more than 2,000 Marines. Another MEU and a third carrier strike group are on the way to the Middle East.
Stavridis characterized a blockade of the strait as falling halfway between leaving it under Iranian control and Trump’s earlier threat to wipe out Iran as a civilization.
“It puts economic pressure on Tehran without destroying the oil facilities, which you should want to preserve into the future,” he said. “So big complicated undertaking, hardly a trivial move on the chess board we’ve been watching.”
Cutting off the trickle of oil that’s been coming out of the Persian Gulf would likely send energy markets into more turmoil. Futures have already soared, and prices for delivery of physical barrels are even higher as shortages mount.
Stavridis said that Iranian ships could try to look for ways around a blockade to smuggle oil or deploy more mines. He also warned Russia and China could come to Iran aid with cyberattacks.
While he has been skeptical that the U.S. Navy has enough ships to escort all the tankers that typically transit the Strait of Hormuz, he said it has the resources to blockade Iran’s oil exports.
Removing more supply from global oil markets should send prices even higher, but Brooks argued crude might do the opposite if a U.S. blockade is seen ending the war quickly.
China, which buys most of Iran’s oil, would be incentivized to lobby Tehran to reopen the strait, and a blockade of Iran’s exports would deprive the regime of hard currency needed to prop up its war machine, he added.
