And while sentiments are picking up as the U.S. heads into spring, there’s a specific demographic which is feeling the most positive: Gen Z and young millennials. On a six-month moving average basis, confidence grew in February for consumers under the age of 35—the most optimistic group overall. Indeed, since around summer 2023, Gen Z has been the most confident cohort surveyed by the Conference Board.
Overall, “consumers’ write-in responses on factors affecting the economy continued to skew towards pessimism,” noted Dana M. Peterson, chief economist at The Conference Board. “Comments about prices, inflation, and the cost of goods remained at the top of consumer’s minds. Mentions of trade and politics also increased in February. Labor market mentions eased a bit in February, while observations about immigration increased somewhat.”
Those aged 20 to 24 are faring better: Their unemployment rate in November and December last year sat at 8.3% and 8.2%—by January that had fallen to 7.1%.
Despite confidence remaining relatively subdued, some of the worst concerns among consumers are beginning to ease.
A measure not included in the consumer confidence index is recession odds. Indeed, the share of consumers who said a U.S. recession over the next 12 months is “very likely” fell, and those saying it would be unlikely rose. Likewise, the percentage of people who believe the U.S. is already in a recession dipped. The Conference Board did not provide the data to illustrate how much the responses had shifted.
Consumers are also feeling happier about forking out for more expensive items. When asked about big-ticket spending over the next six months, consumers in February were more comfortable planning their spending than in December. Their main area of focus was dining out, as well as hotel stays and personal travel. Utilities, pet care, and motor vehicle service payment expectations also increased.
