Speaking during the bank’s company update event yesterday afternoon, the 69-year-old acknowledged it’s easy to get caught up in bull spirits. But he also reiterated the long term, macroeconomic headwinds he believes will inevitably lead to a turn in the cycle. On calls that rising tides will lift all boats in the market, Dimon shared: “I’m not quite that optimistic about the year.”
“We know … that there are all these tailwinds. The One Big Beautiful Bill, bank deregulation, other deregulation, animal spirits, faster permitting … I think it’s all going to drive growth this year,” he began. “It may have a slight inflationary effect.”
But turning to headwinds, Dimon cited geopolitics, global deficits, trade issues, the remilitarization of the world. “Those are longer term things that may effect the economy, but they could be harsh,” Dimon added. “If you read history books, there are a lot of examples where you could get surprised.”
“We don’t run the company hoping for good times, we don’t run the company just thinking there are bad times. We run the company [with] a full range of possible outcomes, so that regardless of the outcome we can serve our clients day in and day out,” he added.
“There will be a cycle one day, I don’t know when there will be a cycle, I don’t know what confluence of events will cause that cycle,” Dimon continued. “My anxiety is high over it. I’m not assuaged by the fact that asset prices are high, in fact I think that adds to the risk.”
It’s an unpopular take. Tech companies are banking on an optimistic story where AI bets pay off. In fact, Dimon acknowledged it’s easy to feel “stupid” to question the potential returns when the going is so good, but he added: “And then I think about all the factors taking place, I like to take a deep breath and say ‘watch out.’”
While a question about Dimon’s economic outlook is usually the most popular, succession questions often come second.
