China has bought at least 8 million tons of US soybeans this year, according to people familiar with the matter, putting the world’s top importer on track to meet a pledge it made two months ago as part of an apparent trade truce with Washington.
The shipments booked so far are mostly for loading between December and March, the people said.
The return of Chinese buyers is welcome news for US exporters, and a reminder that buying patterns can change fast — but it is not yet a full reset. Even as Beijing takes US shipments, state-owned firms have bought large quantities of beans from Brazil and Argentina, the people said. Commercial buyers in particular have stayed on the sidelines when it comes to US purchases.
“We cannot confirm from China’s side that anything beyond the 12 million tons has been pledged,” said Ben Buckner, grains and dairy analyst at AgResource Co. The brokerage wrote in a note this week that China was seeking shipments and could reach a “soft target” of 10 million tons in 2025, with an additional 2 million tons in January.
Without a formal deal confirmed by both sides, traders say uncertainty over future sales is reinforcing pressure on soybean prices. Futures in Chicago eased in the year’s final trading session Wednesday, on track to decline about 7% in December, the worst monthly performance since July 2024.
Matt Bennett, an Illinois corn and soy farmer, said many farmers have been “pleasantly surprised” with the steady flow of purchases from China so far, but added there has been frustration with the direction of soybean prices.
“From our vantage point, once you quantify that they’re going to buy 12 million tons, you need something in excess of that to get everyone excited,” Bennett, co-founder of farm advisory AgMarket.Net, said in a phone interview.
