“The value of OpenAI subscriptions in the major European markets declined slightly in June and has been little changed since then … Unlike in the past two years, the pace of growth has not increased long after the annual summer slowdown, suggesting that the subscription model may be saturating,” they said.
At the same time, growth in subscription value has rocketed at Anthropic and Perplexity—although both of those large-language models have a smaller number of customers, Deutsche Bank’s data shows.
“The new data also show that the value of OpenAI subscriptions has increased 18% this year, compared with a near sevenfold increase in Anthropic’s Claude and 46% gain in Perplexity from much smaller bases,” the pair wrote.
And Anthropic has an easier pathway to profitability than OpenAI, Deutsche Bank said:
“In recent years, hedge funds have been able to borrow amounts equal to or higher than the market value of the collateral provided—that is, without any discount, or haircut, protecting the cash lender from market risk,” he said. “Around 70% of bilateral repos [a short-term borrowing tool based on a repurchase agreement] taken out by hedge funds in U.S. dollars and 50% in bilateral repos in euros are offered at zero haircut, meaning that creditors are not imposing any constraint on leverage using government bonds.”
In Washington, D.C., Trump said he had settled on a replacement for the Fed’s Powell. The markets interpreted that as meaning the Fed would be likely to continue cutting rates, thus adding more liquidity to markets that are already near their record highs. The CME FedWatch tool—which shows bets on Fed fund futures—gave a 90% chance of a 0.25% cut coming in December and a 40% chance of another one being delivered in March 2026.
Here’s a snapshot of the markets ahead of the opening bell in New York this morning:
