“Funds flow gradually toward the development of Mars, until the Starlink constellation is complete,” the ARK Invest researchers wrote.
While conceding that projecting cash flows from extraterrestrial settlements can be speculative, ARK Invest believes Mars-related business will account for a significant portion of SpaceX’s valuation by the late 2030s.
“Given the scale and long-term goal of colonizing Mars, investors are unlikely to earn much of a return on capital for a significant period of time,” the researchers wrote. “While activities on Mars could lower the costs of servicing the satellite market on earth and pave the way for mining asteroids, those opportunities are beyond the scope of this forecast.”
As Musk puts his experience in Washington behind him, investors in the ARK Venture Fund, which provides exposure to several high-profile private companies, will hope he can reward the optimism of Wood and her colleagues. The fund’s shares have risen nearly 20% over the past 12 months, compared with the 12.5% return of the S&P 500.
